Project Report


Dealing with Outliers in Impact Evaluation
Based on Billing Data

Paper presented at 1993 International Energy Program Evaluation Conference, Chicago, Illinois
Paper Dated: August, 1993
By: Michael Blasnik, with Scott Pigg

Abstract

The goal of using utility billing data for impact evaluation is to discern the program energy savings from among all the other factors that influence energy usage. However, at a given facility, extraneous factors unrelated to the program can have a much larger impact on energy usage than what we are seeking to measure - the program itself.

This can have a deleterious effect on the precision with which program impacts can be measured, and in some cases can strongly bias the results.

The purpose of this paper is to discuss, in a general way, the identification and treatment of unusual customer billing data. The goal of this process is to improve the precision with which we can measure program impacts without producing biased estimates of program savings. As such, it is focused on reducing the influence of random non-program factors that influence energy usage.

Also see Impact/Process Evaluations

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